Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 36,508
2 Mississippi 33,764
3 Florida 33,357
4 Alabama 32,462
5 North Dakota 30,906
6 Arizona 30,329
7 South Carolina 29,440
8 Iowa 29,395
9 Tennessee 29,031
10 Georgia 28,893
11 Arkansas 28,833
12 Texas 27,646
13 South Dakota 27,601
14 Nevada 26,665
15 Nebraska 24,714
16 Idaho 24,601
17 Utah 24,210
18 New York 24,124
19 Illinois 24,086
20 Wisconsin 24,034
21 Rhode Island 23,670
22 New Jersey 23,641
23 Oklahoma 23,077
24 Missouri 22,108
25 District of Columbia 21,989
26 Delaware 21,815
27 Kansas 21,424
28 Maryland 21,136
29 California 21,123
30 North Carolina 20,751
31 Massachusetts 19,578
32 Indiana 18,938
33 Minnesota 18,419
34 Virginia 17,792
35 Kentucky 17,030
36 Connecticut 16,351
37 Puerto Rico 15,867
38 New Mexico 14,534
39 Michigan 14,147
40 Montana 13,789
41 Ohio 13,594
42 Pennsylvania 13,135
43 Colorado 12,743
44 Alaska 12,712
45 Washington 12,282
46 Wyoming 11,237
47 West Virginia 9,278
48 Hawaii 9,151
49 Oregon 8,243
50 New Hampshire 6,357
51 Maine 4,105
52 Vermont 2,860

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 582
2 South Dakota 483
3 Wisconsin 444
4 Utah 365
5 Montana 346
6 Nebraska 279
7 Oklahoma 248
8 Arkansas 242
9 Wyoming 242
10 Iowa 238
11 Alabama 232
12 Minnesota 214
13 Missouri 212
14 Alaska 210
15 South Carolina 210
16 Indiana 200
17 Idaho 195
18 Kentucky 184
19 Mississippi 179
20 Tennessee 178
21 Nevada 176
22 Puerto Rico 167
23 Illinois 160
24 Delaware 156
25 Texas 155
26 Kansas 154
27 North Carolina 140
28 New Mexico 129
29 Louisiana 122
30 Virginia 122
31 Georgia 118
32 Florida 113
33 West Virginia 112
34 Ohio 102
35 Massachusetts 100
36 Maryland 98
37 Colorado 96
38 California 87
39 New Jersey 86
40 New Hampshire 80
41 Pennsylvania 80
42 New York 78
43 District of Columbia 76
44 Michigan 74
45 Oregon 71
46 Arizona 70
47 Hawaii 69
48 Washington 59
49 Connecticut 51
50 Rhode Island 50
51 Maine 21
52 Vermont 16

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,816
2 New York 1,686
3 Massachusetts 1,379
4 Connecticut 1,265
5 Louisiana 1,199
6 Rhode Island 1,055
7 Mississippi 1,012
8 District of Columbia 894
9 Arizona 783
10 Illinois 714
11 Michigan 713
12 Florida 683
13 South Carolina 670
14 Delaware 662
15 Georgia 659
16 Maryland 654
17 Pennsylvania 647
18 Texas 568
19 Indiana 545
20 Nevada 526
21 Alabama 521
22 Arkansas 472
23 Iowa 439
24 New Mexico 425
25 Ohio 421
26 California 408
27 Virginia 383
28 Minnesota 378
29 Tennessee 373
30 North Dakota 363
31 Missouri 361
32 Colorado 360
33 North Carolina 348
34 New Hampshire 325
35 Washington 293
36 South Dakota 280
37 Kentucky 277
38 Idaho 269
39 Oklahoma 265
40 Nebraska 260
41 Kansas 239
42 Wisconsin 238
43 Puerto Rico 214
44 West Virginia 199
45 Montana 174
46 Utah 149
47 Oregon 135
48 Hawaii 109
49 Maine 105
50 Vermont 92
51 Wyoming 91
52 Alaska 73

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 7
2 Arkansas 4
3 Hawaii 4
4 Louisiana 4
5 South Dakota 4
6 Delaware 3
7 Florida 3
8 Georgia 3
9 Mississippi 3
10 Ohio 3
11 South Carolina 3
12 Tennessee 3
13 Illinois 2
14 Iowa 2
15 Kansas 2
16 Nevada 2
17 Puerto Rico 2
18 Texas 2
19 Arizona 1
20 California 1
21 District of Columbia 1
22 Idaho 1
23 Indiana 1
24 Kentucky 1
25 Massachusetts 1
26 Minnesota 1
27 Missouri 1
28 Montana 1
29 Nebraska 1
30 New Mexico 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 Pennsylvania 1
34 Utah 1
35 Virginia 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alabama 0
38 Alaska 0
39 Colorado 0
40 Connecticut 0
41 Maine 0
42 Maryland 0
43 Michigan 0
44 New Hampshire 0
45 New Jersey 0
46 New York 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Rhode Island 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 160,319 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 154,305 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 149,504 3 99
Lafayette Florida 146,402 4 99
Lake Tennessee 133,267 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 42,102 207 93
Richland South Carolina 37,808 286 90
York South Carolina 20,041 1218 61
Orange California 17,705 1438 54
Pierce Washington 10,172 2286 27

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,085 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 599 719 77
Davidson Tennessee 455 1013 67
Orange California 405 1126 64
York South Carolina 299 1418 54
Pierce Washington 253 1566 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons